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Ethan Harris Quotes
«In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs. The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments. As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«This large inflow is an important prop for the Treasury market, helping keep yields in their current low trading range. Not only is the inflow large relative to new Treasury supply, it may also help stabilize the market when it comes under pressure. If investors start to shy away from the U.S. market, the dollar comes under downward pressure and the Asian central banks pile in to support the U.S. market.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out. The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish. Being 'patient' sounds a little less like they're keeping rates on hold than a 'considerable period' -- though you'd need to study a dictionary closely to figure that out.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish.»
Author: Ethan Harris
«This has been a fundamental problem with the Fed's whole approach to policy making. By changing their language so frequently, they make it impossible to figure out what they're doing.»
Author: Ethan Harris