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Our sense of immunity is gone. Similar events are the Arab oil embargo of October 1973--which challenged our assumptions about the continued availability of plentiful, cheap energy--and the October 1957 Sputnik launch--which raised fears of global missile attack. Both of those shocks triggered important changes in spending priorities. Both hit a U.S. economy that had already been slowing. Both were accompanied or rapidly followed by recessions. We can never know, with confidence, how the economy …

…in 2000, and then by sustaining it in the face of rising unemployment during the first eight months of 2001. By the spring of 2002, the economy will benefit from the additional stimulus that the Fed has added to the pipeline since September 11. Tax incentives designed to kick start investment spending seem all but certain. Finally, no other economy can so quickly shift resources from shrinking to expanding industries. We're behind, but not out. Brighter time lies ahead.